This study looks at single family detached home statistics from 2000 to 2009 YTD 5-18-09. Visit the link below to learn more about the amazing town of Summerville. "The town's name is evocative of its history. Situated on a pine-forested ridge, it was first inhabited in the late 1700's as Charlestonians and other inhabitants of the SC Lowcountry sought respite from the summer heat, mosquitos and disease. From May to September plantation families along the nearby Ashley River and other coastal areas, headed for higher elevation to live temporarily or "maroon," in the tiny forest colony soon dubbed Summerville. Other pioneer residents descended from those 1696 puritans who settled the nearby former colonial settlement of Dorchester, endowing Summerville with a heritage spanning three centuries." "Summerville's beauty is mirrored in her motto, "The Flower Town in the Pines." Since the early 1900's day tourists have flocked to the town during early spring to enjoy millions of spring blossoms, particularly azaleas, in private and public gardens, including the mid-town Azalea Park. It's no wonder perhaps that the motto on the town's official seal is Sacra Pinus Esto- The Pine is Sacred." In 2000 Summerville sold 1200 single family detached homes and by 2005 reached 3200 homes per year. The number of homes sold averaged 28.4% growth per year from 2002 to 2005. The sales dollar volume grew from $161.3 million to a high of $700 million in 2006. The average home sold for $209,567 in 2006 with a median sales price of $194,170 and on average sold for 99.7% of the listing price. During that year homes averaged 46 days on the market (DOM) and there was a 3.5 months supply of homes in inventory at the end of 2006. In 2007 the Summerville homes sold declined by -23% from the previous year to 2472 homes. In 2008 the home sales dropped -32.5% to 1668 homes sold. This sharp decline in home sales resulted in only a -4% average sold price and -5% median sales price in 2008. The average and median sale price decline from 2008 to 2009 YTD (5/18/09) averaged -13.7% and -14% respectively to $176,926 average and $169,098 median price. There were 381 homes sold in 2009 through May 18th which will probably remain below the 2008 levels. The homes have sold on average 96.94% of the list price. The decline in Summerville single family detached home is similar to the greater Charleston area. The average and median sales price have remained strong compared to other areas across the country. Summerville is a highly desirable place to live offering a rich history, wonderful life style and exceptional value to buyers moving into the area. The slides below show the development of the Summerville single family detached home market. I hope this information is helpful to agents and their clients. Figure 1: Monthly Home Sales Figure 2: Yearly Home Sales Figure 3: List, Average and Median Price Figure 4: Sold Price as % of List Price

Park West is one of the most prolific subdivisions for home sales over the past 10 years. It offers buyers a wide variety of styles and prices. The amenities are outstanding. Homeowners can find almost everything they need within a few miles of their home. Mount Pleasant Map shows Park West Access from Hwy 17N and Hwy 41 10 Year History Single Family Detached Homes Sales Park West Park West homes sales were first reported by CTAR MLS in 1999 with 11 homes. Over a 10 year period (1999-2008) single family detached home sales in Park West have averaged 131 units per year. The highest year home sales was 228 in 2005. In 2009 YTD through March there have been 26 homes sold. Figure 1: Homes SalesThe first quarter single family home sales in Park West increased 15.4% from the first quarter of 2008.There were 26 homes sold in the first quarter 2009 compared to 22 in 2008. Figure 2: Sales VolumeThe Park West sales volume at $9,735,651 was $436,349 below 2008 1ST QT or -4.5%. The decrease in volume dollars was attributed to decreased home prices as seen in Figure 3 below. Figure 3: List, Avg. Sales and Median Sold PriceAverage sales price dropped $85,779 (-22.3%) from $470,474 in 2008 to $384,695 in 2009 1ST QT. The median sold price at $328,750 was down $44,417 (-13.5%). Figure 4: Price / Sq. Ft.The average price $/Square Foot from $165 to $146 from 2008 to 2009. This was a $19.00 drop (-12.8%). Figure 5: % Sold Price of List PriceHomes in 2009 sold for 94.5% of the list price which was up +1.7% from 2008. This is partially attributed to the drop -24.4% in average list price during the same period. Figure 6: Average Days on Market It took less days to sell a home in 2009 at 126 compared to 136 in the first quarter of 2008. Figure 7: Current Inventory of Homes For SaleThe home inventory decreased from 136 in 2008 to 123 in 2009 1st QT. Figure 8: Months Supply of Inventory at Current SalesAt the end of the first quarter 2009 there was 16 months of inventory which was down from 20 months in 2008. In summary the Park West subdivision in Mount Pleasant (Charleston County) sold 15% more homes in the first quarter of 2009. The total sales volume was down due to a drop in the average and median sales price. In 2009 the average days on market was less and the supply of homes for sale decreased by 11% and the months supply of inventory was reduced by 24.5%. Overall the real estate market is adjusting and sellers have lowered their average listing prices. The 15% increase in homes sold is significant in the current economy. The second quarter will show if we are at a turning point. Park West is a good area to study because it offers 131 homes sold per year on average in all price ranges and styles. From small starter homes to water front properties 3000+ square feet.

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The Charleston area CTAR MLS reported the lowest first quarter home sales in the past 10 years. Homes sales in the 1QT-1998 were 1516 units while 1QT-2009 had 1376. The best first quarter during the past 10 years was 3990 in 2006. The decline between 2006 first quarter and 2009 was -65.5%. While homes sales dropped -38.8% from 1QT-2008 to 1QT-2009, the reduction in Median sold price was only -11.2% during the same period. The Median sold price increased by 2.5% between first quarters from 2005 and 2009. The question that everyone is asking is when the market will reach the bottom. There have been some positive indications in recent weeks. CNN reported this week that the a few economists were predicting the economy to bottom within 3 months. Moody’s Economy.com predicts the housing market will bottom out by year end. Other good news from the Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage applications, which includes both purchase and refinance loans, for the week ended April 3 increased 4.7% to 1,250.6. Let's take a look at the first quarter 2009 for the Charleston area market. Figure 1: 10-Year Monthly Home Sales The past decade had a 4 year period of stability, 4 years of rapid growth and 3 years of accelerated decline. 2009 first quarter home sales dropped to a 10 year low. First quarter home sales fell below the 1516 units reported in 1998 to 1376 in 2009. Figure 2: 5-Year Homes Sales Quarterly Over the past five years the first quarter of each year had the lowest home sales followed by the second quarters highest units sold. The 2009 second quarter growth will be an indicator of weather the bottom is in sight. Figure 3: Comparison 1St Qt Home Sales 2005-2009 Home sales fell from 3869 to 1376 (-64%) between 1st Qt 2005 to 1st Qt 2009. Figure 4: 5-Year Volume Sales per Quarter Volume sales dropped from $978,652,565 in first quarter 2005 to $354,941,995 first quarter of 2009. Figure 5: Comparison 1St Qt Volume Sales 2005-2009 Volume sales dropped -47.6% between first quarter of 2008 and 2009. Figure 6: 5-Year Average List, Average Sold and Median PriceList price, average sold price and median sold price all declined in the first quarters of 2008 and 2009. Figure 7: Comparison 1St Qt 2005-2009 Average List, Sold and Median Prices From the first quarter 2008 to 2009 the list price dropped -12.7%, average sale price dropped -14.4% and the median price declined -11.5%. Figure 8: Comparison 1St Qt 2005-2009 average sales price as a percent of list priceThe percent sold to list price declined in the first quarters of 2008 and 2009 by 0.7% and -2% respectively. The decrease between 2005 and 2009 was -4.3% from .982 to .939. Figure 9:1QT Days on Market Comparision 2005-2009 First Quarter days on market reached 118 in 2009. Figure 10: Comparison 1St Qt 2005-2009 Current InventoryFor the last 8 quarters there has been an inventory of between 11,000-12,000 homes. Figure 11: Comparison 1St Qt 2005-2009 Months Inventory In the first quarter 2009 there was a 24 months home inventory. In summary the first quarter of 2009 reported the worst start in 10 years, the volume was $354,941,995 down -47%, averages sold price dropped -14.7% to $257,531, the sold to listing ratio dropped -2% to 93.9%, days on the market reached 118 up from 104 in 2008, the current inventory is around 11,000 units and there is a 24 months supply of homes at the current demand. I estimate the housing market will bottom out in the first quarter of 2010. Overall it is the best buyers market in the last decade offering interest rates below 5% for 30 year fixed mortgages, tax incentives for first time buyers, low average sale and median sold prices, high inventory of new construction, an abundance of foreeclosures in all price ranges, and 11,000 sellers motivated to sell their homes.

 

The Charleston tri-county area continued to attract new residents to the desirable low country life style. The area population grew by 14,000 residents between the summers of 2007-2008. Many new residents moved south from the colder northeastern states. The study shows the strength of the Charleston area.

Below is a study of the tri-county area and comparison of the Charleston, Berkeley and Dorchester counties. In 2008 Charleston County was the largest county with 51% of the 8.691 units sold and 65% of the $2,550,989,048 sales volume. Berkeley County leads the tri-county area with highest percent growth in unit and volume dollar sales. Dorchester County is slightly smaller the Berkeley county in actual units and volume sales but has a higher percent growth than Charleston County. Dorchester County offers buyers the lowest average home prices in the tri-county area.

Figure 1: Charleston Tri-County Area Map

Figure 2: Charleston Tri-County Home Sales
There were 8,691 properties (units) sold in the tri-county area in 2008. Charleston County represented 4,436 units (51%), while Berkeley County had 2,317 (27%) and Dorchester county 1,938 (22%) respectively. In 2005 Charleston County reached a record high of 9,826 units.

Figure 3: Charleston Tri-County Volume Sales
The tri-county area reached a sales volume high of $4,863,562,683 in 2005 and by 2008 fell 52% to $2,550,989,048. Charleston County represented 65% ($1,667,510,294) of the volume as Berkeley County 20% ($498,560,101) and Dorchester County 15% ($384,918,653) correspondingly. Note that Charleston peaked in 2005 whereas Dorchester and Berkeley counties peaked in 2006.

Figure 4: Charleston Tri-County Average List Price

The decline in unit and volume sales did not hinder the average list price rise in 2007 to a high of $310,671 for the tri-county area. In 2008 the average list price fell only -2% to $307,623. In Charleston County the average list price increased by 1.2% to $397,773. Berkeley and Dorchester counties average list price dropped -3.4% and -6.8% respectively. In general, the Charleston County sellers were not willing to reduce their list price even though unit sales had a drastic decrease.

Figure 5: Charleston Tri-County Average Sold Price

The tri-county average sold price only declined by -2.2% between 2007 and 2008. Charleston County price remained constant at $375,904 down only -0.3%. The average prices in the tri-county area offers buyers a wide range of home choices. Compared to other areas in the USA, the Charleston area was one of America's 25 strongest housing markets listed in Forbes.

Figure 6: Charleston Tri-County Median Sold Price

The tri-county median sold price grew from $122,900 (1998) to $209,081 in 2007. There was a decrease in the tri-county to $201,100 (-3.9%) in 2008. Charleston County’s median price grew from $247,000 to $252,000 between 2007 and 2008. Berkeley and Dorchester declined in 2008 -5% and -7.3% respectively after solid growth since 1998

Figure 7: Charleston Tri-County Price/ Sq Ft

The tri-county area had an average of $152/$ Sq ft in 2008. Dorchester County had the lowest price per Sq Ft at $104 followed by Berkeley County at $112 and Charleston County at $194. (Charleston County higher cost in 2005 is probably attributed to the luxury condominium market.)

Figure 8: Charleston Tri-County % Sold of List Price

In 2008 the average sold price was 95.4% of the list price. (It should be noted that there have been changes by the MLS in the way sold % / list price is calculated. 2008incorporates the reporting changes).

Figure 9: Charleston Tri-County Average DOM


The average days on market for properties sold in 2008 were 102 days. Berkeley County homes sold in 86 days on average. Dorchester County was next with an average of 90 DOM and then Charleston County homes with an average of 116 DOM.

Figure 10: Charleston Tri-County Current Unit Inventory

Charleston County accounts for 6,830 (64%) of the tri-county 10,672 units inventory in 2008. Dorchester and Berkeley account for 1,829 and 2,013 units respectively.

Figure 11: Charleston Tri-County Months Inventory

In 2008 the average months inventory was 14.7 month. Charleston had an 18.5 month supply in 2008. Dorchester had only 11.3 and Berkeley had 10.4 months inventory correspondingly. Charleston County had a tremendous increase in months inventory between 2005 and 2008.

In the next posting I will look at the percentage growth of the counties in the Charleston tri-county area.

Charleston SC Real Estate Update - Market Stats

 

Dear Century 21 Properties Plus agents,

Welcome to the Century 21 Blog. Our goal is to present a monthly analysis of the greater Charleston area real estate market. We will look at the past 10-year, past 5-years, and 2008 -2009 monthly statistics.  The analysis will review important market measurements including: unit sales, sales volume, days on market, list price, average sales price, median sold price, unit inventory level and months inventory. We will also study the MLS as a whole, by county and by individual areas including the major subdivisions and some subsections. The Blog will provide market information for the Century 21 agents to supplement their listing and buyer presentations. It is our intent to provide the agent current data to discuss with their clients their property with respect to the subsection, subdivision, MLS area, county and overall CTAR market with confidence.

We welcome your questions, support, criticism, and suggestions. Please email me at carlcaldeira@comcast.net or call 843-224-2687.

Regards,
Carl Caldeira & Dave Creaturo

Charleston Area 10-Year Review

During the past 10 years we’ve seen a tremendous development of our Charleston area real estate market. In 1998 there were 7,623 units sold, a sales volume of $1.2 billion, an average sales price of $158,462, with 2941 units in inventory and an average month’s inventory of 4.63 months. In 2008 the market had 8,893 units sold, $2.6 billion in sales volume, and an average selling price of $292,247 with 11,382 units in the inventory and 15.36 months inventory. In 2005 the market reached its highest unit sales and volume sales levels.

Let’s take a more detailed look at the market between 1998 and 2008. The greater Charleston area (CTAR MLS all areas) in 1998 had 7,623 unit sales. In 2002 the market started to take off. The unit sales increased from 8,316 to a record high of 18,075 in 2005 (an increase of 217% or 72% per year for 3 years. In 2005 the real estate market reached an all time high unit sales. In 2006 there was a 1,304 unit decrease to 16,771. Then over the next 2 years the market dropped from 16,771 to 8,893 units or a decrease of 188% (average 94% decrease per year).

In the 5-year unit sales / month (Fig.2), we see the trend line and sales cycles. The slope of the trend line demonstrates the rapid unit sales decline from 2005 to 2008.

Also in this chart we can see the seasonality of the units sold during the year. The second and third quarters usually produce more sales than the first and fourth quarters. In 2008 the unit sales started well below the previous three years and after a 6 month decline ended back at the 2002 monthly unit sales level.

From Carl

In slide Fig. 3 I’ve stacked the years one on top of the other to demonstrate the monthly unit variance from 2005-2008. Here we can see that June 2005 had 1852 units compared to a high of only 913 units in 2008. It is also interesting to note that the second quarter of 2008 was much flatter than 2005-2006.

It is troublesome to see 2009 start out with only 400 units which is well below the 650 units in 2008.

The greater Charleston market area reached an all time high dollar sales volume of $5,022,485,847 in 2005 up from $1,207,959,788 in 1998 for a 415% increase over the 6 year period (avg. 69% / year). From 2006 to the end of 2008 the total volume declined to $2,599,251,589 or 193% (avg. 97% / year).

From Carl

In 2005 and 2006 the monthly dollar volume reached a high point over $550,000,000 while 2008 peaked around $275,000,000 and had a low of $125,000,000.

The second half of 2008 saw a sharp decline in volume. January 2009 started out at only $100,000,000 which was far below previous years 2005-2007.

From Carl

The average sales price increased from $158,462 in 1998 to $298,604 2006 or 188% (avg. 20.9% over 9 years). The average sales price declined to $292,247 in 2008 by 2.2%. The median sales price for the area was $122,550 in 1998 and by 2007 it rose to $207,500 or 169% (avg. 18.8% / year). The median price fell to $200,000 in 2008 or 3.75%. The Charleston area as a whole has been able to maintain its home value compared to other areas in the country. We should also note that some price ranges have had more discounting and some CTAR areas have lost more value.

From Carl

The average sales price increased from $158,462 in 1998 to $298,604 2006 or 188% (avg. 20.9% over 9 years). The average sales price declined to $292,247 in 2008 by 2.2%. The median sales price for the area was $122,550 in 1998 and by 2007 it rose to $207,500 or 169% (avg. 18.8% / year). The median price fell to $200,000 in 2008 or 3.75%. The Charleston area as a whole has been able to maintain its home value compared to other areas in the country. We should also note that some price ranges have had more discounting and some CTAR areas have lost more value.

From Carl

In Fig. 9A we can see that the average list price is higher than the average sold price. The sellers are still reluctant to list their homes closer to the market price. This often results in properties taking longer to sell. Also note that 2009 started out with a median sales price below $180,000 which was down from January 2008.

From Carl

To further emphasize the point of percent of sold price verses list price, we see in Fig 10 that the actual sales price declined from a monthly high in 2005 of 98% of list to 95.5% in 2008.

From Carl

2009 started out below 94% of the list to sold price.

The unit inventory grew from 4,382 units in 2004 to 11,382 units at the end of 2008 or 260% (65%/year for 4 years).

From Carl

The huge build up in inventory started in January 2006 at 5,000 units and reached a monthly high of 11,700 units in April of 2008.

From Carl

The unit inventory started out at 11,000 in 2008 and dropped to a low of 10,600 in December. January 2009 was slightly lower than January 2008.

From Carl

By 2008 the average month’s inventory rose to 15.36 months. Month’s inventory is the expected average time to sell a new listing. It is calculated by the amount of homes sold per month divided by the total unit inventory.

From Carl

During the 2005 market boom sales month’s inventory was below 4 months. As sales slowed and unit inventory grew the inventory months reached to 22 months by November 2008.

From Carl

January 2008 started out at 17 months and in January 2009 reached a 5-year high of 28 months.

From Carl